Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald Poll shows Mitt Romney Beating President Obama 45-51 percent in Florida

Mitt Romney and Barack Obama. By

Mitt Romney has maintained a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely voters who favor the Republican by six percentage points.

Romney’s strengths: independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats relative to the Republicans who back Obama, according to the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Romney’s crossover appeal is fueled by strong support in rural North Florida, a conservative bastion where a relatively high percentage of Democrats often vote Republican in presidential election years.

“I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, who conducted the 800-likely voter survey from Tuesday through Thursday.

Romney is winning handily among men, marginally losing with women voters and has outsized support among non-Hispanic whites. He’s essentially winning on the issues as well: the economy, Medicare, foreign policy and looking out for the middle-class.

Coker noted the poll results are essentially unchanged from last month, when Romney led by a point more after he crushed Obama in their first debate.

The October poll and this one, which have error margins of 3.5 percent, were conducted for The Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald as well as the Tampa Bay Times, Bay News 9 and Central Florida News 13.

Although the latest survey shows Romney comfortably ahead 51-45 percent in Florida, the Republican can’t rest easy. Other polls show a tighter race, although they use a different method of polling than that of Mason-Dixon, a Florida-based firm.

Obama draws only 5 percent Republican support, but Romney draws 16 percent of the likely Democratic vote in the poll.

And Romney beats Obama with independents — the tie-breaker voters — by a six-point margin. That’s not necessarily a comfortable lead for Romney, who was ahead by 13 points last month among independents.

Romney jumped to an overall lead last month after the first presidential debate, in which Obama’s performance was so poor that even he joked about how bad he was.

Hispanic voters moved a total of seven points in Obama’s favor in a month, but he’s not carrying their vote with the double digits he probably needs because of his poor standing among non-Hispanic whites.

Romney is trusted more than Obama on handling the economy and leading the nation by the same amount: 53-44 percent.

By a 50-48 percent split, Romney’s trusted more to look out for the middle-class and he has another inside-the-error-margin lead over Obama of 49-47 percent when it comes to handling foreign policy.

Asked who would be worse for Medicare, 52 percent said Obama and 44 percent said Romney.

Obama’s campaign has dismissed the results of likely voter polls, such as this one, pointing to statistics that indicate they’re turning out so-called “sporadic” and new voters. In essence, they argue that likely voter polls miss their voters who, by definition, are unlikely.

But Coker said the poll was conducted with a registered voter list and “we’re not missing anybody based on our method.”

Also, the Romney campaign notes that most non-partisan polls show the Republican ahead in Florida and doing better among independents.

Source: The Miami Herald

Obama’s Lead is Narrowed Down Against Romney


The deficit of Romney against President Obama among likely voters in Florida and Wisconsin but not Ohio has narrowed down after the selection of Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate. This is according to a new Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News poll.

The lead of Mr. Obama to Romney is down from 49 percent to 46 percent in Florida, down from 51 to 45 on August 1. From 49 percent to 47 percent in Wisconsin, Congressman Ryan’s home state, down from a six-point lead, 51 to 45 percent in Ohio, unchanged from Aug. 1.

The assistant director of Quinnipiac University Polling institute, Mr. Peter Brown said, “Gov. Mitt Romney’s pick of US Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate has made some small difference in Florida and Wisconsin, at least at this point, when voters in these three key states are asked about their presidential vote.”

Since 1964, of those three states, Ohio is the top bellwether having voted for the winner in every presidential election, the longest winning stake of any state. The four point bounce in Wisconsin of Romney is similar to other recent polls and reinforces as a tossup state along with Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, and New Hampshire .

The Medicare proposals as the focus of significant attention since Ryan joined the ticket Aug. 11-is widely unpopular in Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin which is 1/3 of likely voters approved of Romney’s plan to turn Medicare, the federal government’s health insurance program for seniors, into a voucher like system. Although the system is projected to become insolvent in 2024, there are around 6 in 10 want to keep Medicare the way it is.

The Medicare would change to a system of premium support in 10 years as Ryan GOP’s budget plan. A fix sum to purchase either private insurance or traditional Medicare shall be given for seniors. This system according to Democrats would fail to keep up with the rising cost of health care.

Mitt Romney Made Clear on Obama’s Care in Tarmac


On the tarmac of South Carolina Airport, an impromptu press conference where Mitt Romney took another crack at resetting the Medicare debate today. The Republican presidential candidate tried to spell out, literally, the differences between his and President Obama’s policies with a black marker in his hand and a whiteboard to his side.

Romney said, “You’re going to have to take me over here. As you can see, there’s no change in Medicare for seniors. None under my plan.” He is asking the cameras to track along with him as he gestured towards his handy visual aid.

The plan stays the same and no adjustments, no savings, and no changes as Romney said. “Will get the option of having standard Medicare, a fee for service type government run Medicare, or private run Medicare,” Romney added.

When an interview with ABC affiliate WBAY in Wisconsin, the comments seemed to run counter of what he said Wednesday Night. Romney argued that he and running mate proposals are the same if not identical. Ryan’s proposals are to revamp Medicare.

Romney stated that “Ryan is on my ticket and we have the same plan together. He and I have exactly the same policy.”

The two halves of the Republican ticket would go about their reforms can be seen in the number that indicates significant differences. The money slated to be cut from the Medicare bankroll can be questioned about, what they would do with the money when President Obama’s Affordable Care Act goes into effect.

The first issue is the president’s health care law of $716 billion that will be taken from Medicare to cover costs across the board. Reinvesting the money whether it is used or not used to ease the deficit is the same amount cut from Ryan’s budget taken from Medicare.

The purpose of the money cut from Medicare is less clear to Romney where this cuts would go, or there would be cuts at all.

The campaign official statement emphasize that “Governor Romney believes Obama care was a terrible mistakes and has repeatedly made clear he believes it must be repealed in its entirety.”



The Team Romney Use the Medicare Cut of Obama as Current Strategy


There is a concerted effort that the Medicare debate can get out ahead by Team Romney.

Rep. Paul Ryan’s proposals for a solution to the budget problem have argued by the Democrats that would essentially end Medicare and can create more market-based system for people under 55.

The Democrats camp is preparing to combat those assertions and start to hear and look for a plan to begin the battle against the Romney’s campaign.

Last night in Oxford, Ohio Ryan argues that they welcome debate of the Medicare plan of Obama and will continue to do today.

In a big crowd at Miami University rally in Ohio, Ryan told the crowd “We want this debate, we need this debate, and we will win this debate.”

Protecting the age 55 onward, Ryan is going to assert and defend with Romney not to change the Medicare Plan for them. And giving a choice for younger citizen the same Medicare that is popular to everybody known as voucher like system and choose the kind of coverage they prefer. The word voucher is not used by Ryan.

It is known that Medicare was not included into Ryan’s earliest budget proposals but only added to subsequent proposals.

It is always mention and repeatedly uttered the $716 billion cut from Medicare of President Obama as the biggest part of the Romney/Ryan argument.  Both are arguing this matter in every interview and rally of the two Republican bearers.

But Paul Ryan’s plan includes those very same cuts to future spending however they don’t mention the plan. The purpose of the cut has different idea as such spending for Ryan toward deficit reduction and for Obama’s cost savings funneled to health reform law. The team Obama is arguing that the future spending is actually to remove waste in the system already.

The issue of the cut of Medicare can be the gauge of both camps.  If they convince that Obama is actually the one who cut Medicare and that Romney/Ryan now wants to save it, then they will win.